The 2024 US Election And Possible Implications For Outsourcing Companies

Disclaimer: Politics is not a topic we typically discuss on this blog and as such, we would like to preface this text with an honest disclaimer that we do not intend to influence the 2024 US Election, have any favorite candidate, or support any political party with this article.  

As the political landscape begins to heat up toward the upcoming US general election, it has become increasingly important to evaluate vital sociopolitical issues surrounding it such as the chronic instability of the economy. 

As a result in this article, I would like to present a thorough investigation into the various contending issues of the upcoming 2024 US election.

My aim is to help you reach a conclusion on what the outcomes of the election might mean for netizens and entrepreneurs doing business with the world but operating out of the United States territory.  

In other words, in this article we will briefly look at the upcoming US 2024 election and what It means — if any, for companies outsourcing from America.

By the end of the article, you should know how to navigate and plan your company’s way out of an unfavorable business climate. 

With that said, let’s begin. 

The 2024 US Election Is The 60th Presidential Election

The upcoming 2024 US election scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, is already proving to be one of the most important US elections in recent memory.

This, according to Washington Post writers Dan Balz and Clara Ence Morse, is partly because of the increasing perception Americans have that the political system is broken and does not represent their interests.  

Faced with big and challenging problems — climate, immigration, inequality, guns, debt, and deficits — government and politicians seem incapable of achieving consensus. On each of those issues, the public is split, often bitterly. But on each, there are also areas of agreement. What’s broken is the will of those in power to see past the divisions enough to reach a compromise. —Dan Balz and Clara Ence Morse. 

This belief is the biggest factor influencing voters to heavily consider and support a third and independent presidential candidate —for the very first time in recent history, who is capable and willing to address the reasons for this feeling in the forms that it manifests in several contending issues going into the election. 

It is also why I have chosen to write this article to think through the implications of addressing or not addressing some of the issues. 

Confidence in government is far below the global average in America.

Source: Gallup World Poll 2022

As things stand, pre-election polls are showing strong discontent with the state of American democracy as marked by the sharp surge in polarization compared to similar democracies. 

The First Presidential Election After Roe V. Wade

One such polarizing issue that has brought about the collapse in trust in government institutions from voters and is begging for a resolution is the issue of the oversight of abortion laws. 

This election marks the inaugural presidential election following two significant court rulings that have impacted access to abortion.

The first ruling is the 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, where the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, delegating abortion law entirely to the states, making it possible to criminalize abortion.

The second is the 2023 decision in Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, where a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA’s approval of mifepristone in 2000 —- a popular abortion drug.

Both rulings have garnered strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.

Unsurprisingly, the rulings and the near-total ban on abortion in most of the United States that followed have been unpopular with Democrats who are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right. 

The origin of the problem that led to this huge gap in understanding between these two ideological classes is what Dan Balz and Clara Ence Morse called the collision between old and new forces.

This ‘collision’ is the duplexity of the constitution that appears to oddly empower a minority of the population to exercise outsize influence on policies and leadership.

Twice in the past two decades, the president was elected while losing the popular vote — George W. Bush in 2000 and Trump in 2016. That had happened only three times in the previous 200-plus years. The dynamic extends beyond the presidency to the other two branches of government.

According to Dan and Clara in their article for the Washington Post above, nine of the current Supreme Court justices were confirmed by senators representing a minority of the U.S. population. 

The publication also found out that although from 1998 onward, Republicans have had a majority in the Senate for a total of 12 years, however, this did not represent more than half of the country’s population. 

Furthermore, the Washington Post found that during Trump’s presidency, 43 percent of all judicial and governmental nominees were confirmed by senators representing a minority of the population while under President Biden, just 5 percent of nominees were confirmed by senators representing a minority of the population.

Foreign And Immigration Policy Rejig Are a Central Electoral Issue

Certainly, the logical conclusion from this as a founder is that policies may seldom reflect the will of the majority.

And that this could be the case when other issues with greater consequences for business like immigration —which has become a main talking point, are being discussed.  

Watch

Already, some people are calling for tighter immigration laws to preserve and protect the territorial integrity of the United States while on the other hand business people across the country, especially big enterprises such as Microsoft and Google are mourning the loss of skilled migrants to other popular and competing destinations such as Canada, Germany, the UK and are trying to stop this trend. 

We will explore what this could mean for the long-term economic viability of the US in the next section. 

Source 

This problem is exemplified in the fact that despite being some of the largest sources of international students to the country for instance, Chinese and Indian students who choose to stay back in the US after their studies have an extremely high obstacle to scale to be awarded the visa needed for their stay and eventual naturalization in the country. 

How The US Election May Impact Your Ability to Outsource

It’s important to note that the impact of the upcoming 2024 US election on outsourcing is complex, multifaceted, and unpredictable.  

Should the presidential election continue to follow the pattern that it does not represent the will of the overwhelming majority of the United States citizens who now mostly live in urban areas across the country due to the quirkiness of the Constitution that gives oversized power to rural Americans in certain scenarios, it would be wise to closely monitor and adjust your business strategies for the following to remain competitive. 

Reduced Competitiveness and Productivity Decline

To understand the impact that tighter immigration policy for instance might have on the already stalled population and productivity level of the country, consider that over 300,000 jobs are outsourced every year in the US, and up to half of the total number of companies in the US outsource their business process.  

For a nation with a declining birth rate and aging population, stricter immigration policies and protectionist measures such as tariffs or trade restrictions that make international trade challenging may not only mean it’d take longer to fill an open position in your business, but also translate to a loss of productivity and undoubtedly, income. 

Reduced Target And Market Cap. 

Perhaps the most important of the two main ways in which supporting advocates of protectionist trade policies may be counterproductive is the fact that it could mean the loss of a potential market for your product in the international business arena should retaliatory measures be implemented in target countries. 

There’s also the fact that your product or service may become less competitive on cost and hence less attractive and as a result, you’re left with a shrunken target market. 

With that said general changes in government policies may also affect your ability to outsource as a business owner.

My goal with this article was to help you understand the importance of closely monitoring policy changes and adapting your business strategies accordingly to remain competitive in a regularly evolving and dynamic business climate like the U.S.

It is important to know that If elected officials favor protectionist policies such as tariffs or trade restrictions that may make it challenging or expensive to do business with a larger number of countries in the world, it will almost always still be less expensive and challenging to trade with countries in the same region. 

If you’re an entrepreneur in the U.S. who has to outsource your IT processes to stay competitive and are already outsourcing offshore in faraway countries like India or Sweden, this might be the time to start to consider nearshoring to LATAM ahead regardless of the outcome of next year’s election. 

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